International Journal of Cardiovascular Sciences. 27/jan/2021;34(1):39-43.

Risk Prediction Systems: One for all or all for Some

Jorge Paiter , Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira

DOI: 10.36660/ijcs.20200372

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of death in Brazil and worldwide, determining an increase in morbidity and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The prevalence of CVD increased from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257–285) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497–550) in 2019, and the number of deaths steadily grew from 12.1 million (95% UI: 11.4–12.6) in 1990 to 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1–19.7) in 2019 in the 21 world regions analyzed by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The prevalence of CVD is likely to increase in Northern Africa and Western Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean due to population growth and aging.

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is part of this heterogeneous group of disorders, in which an acute coronary event is the first manifestation in approximately half of the cases.^, The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170-194) DALYs and 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40-9.74) deaths in 2019. The GBD 2019 study has estimated 197 million (95% UI: 178-220) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019.

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